27 Comments

I really liked your analogy of a vast plain of hardscape blanketing the former riparian area like a “horizontal dam”, preventing needed infiltration for water cycling. Forms a clear understanding in the mind’s eye. Important article, thank you.

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It is all about the connection nature has between Earth and the Sky. In a one continuos connection between back and forth.

Life in soil retail water, the water that vegetation will need to cool down the surface temperature, the moisture from vegetation will trigger cloud formations that will end in rain, heat will go up and water will go down.

Never stop flowing!

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Add California, parts of Pacific Mexico, Panama and Peru, to it, the coast of Oman, the coast of Pakistan, parts of coastal Australia, some Carirbbean islands, a lot of places have seen similar damage and similar results.

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Thanks, Rob. The study I cite, comparing the Central Valley of California with the Central Valley of Chile (they are like mirror images of each other) conclude that Central Chile is drier because colonization there happened earlier.

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Hi Rob de Laet

This is something interesting to discuss and to scale. ¿How many other places in the world experience similar conditions? Dr. Millan has opened my eyes to observe what happens here in Santiago de Chile. Where else? - What does all this places with similar effect mean at a global scale for Climate Change?

The next step is to understand how these small water cycles affect larger water cycles. If the storm doesn't occur, we know we lose the water from the non-cloud formation. However, we also miss the opportunity to release all the energy that is associated with that moisture. (Heat that was collected a the earth surface and brought to 12.000 meter high)

Consequently, all that energy that was not released will shift to a higher water (climate) cycle. Isn't this what we mean when we talk about Climate Change?

Could we explain Climate Climate change with this?

Remember that:

"Water vapor and clouds account for 66 to 85 percent of the greenhouse effect, compared to a range of 9 to 26 percent for CO2."

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Thank you! Who is this quote from on vapor?

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Hi Koen

The quote is from ZEKE HAUSFATHER- Yale Climate Connection

Here the link to the articule:

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2008/02/common-climate-misconceptions-the-water-vapor-feedback-2/

Even do, in the articule he dismiss the importance of vapor. It is a fact.

I think, sometimes, to much science make us focus in the small part of the system and not in the big picture and the relations of the system as a whole living organism.

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Mmh that isn't a strong quote, where do you send people usually who are curious but skeptical about the role of water vapor?

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Hi, Koen, I am not a one of the answers. Alpha Lo is a good reference for these.

I am a one of the questions.

I look around as a forester and ask the questions that need to be asked.

Nature has many answers. We just need to understand them and build upon, not against.

That's how I have build and learned from many of my entrepreneurships.

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Hi Koen: I've read the yale climate connections piece, and it seems both right and wrong to me. Yes, CO2 driven warming increases the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold, leading to increased warming. But that is also a very simplistic view. Destroying soils and vegetation also raises local and regional temperatures while at the same time releasing water vapor. Bear in mind, life IS water, and when we disturb life, the water ends up in the atmosphere as vapor, sometimes entrained in humid hazes for days or weeks at a time. That water vapor has an upper limit, 100% at which it returns to solid water, doesn't change the fact that it absorbs heat when elevated due to human activities.

Also, water is more than a greenhouse gas in its vapor state. It is also the primary vehicle for the movement of heat through the biosphere, via water cycles. Walter Jehne describes water as accounting for 95% of the planet's heat dynamic.

The real problem for the CO2-only perspective, is that water cycles and cloud development are way too complex to boil down to data that computer models can handle, so they treat it simply as a feedback, that can be easily mathematized. This is a fundamental weakness in the globalized modelling approach. It reduces an enormously complex system to a single variable, CO2, treating the climate system as something of a machine, rather than the living, dynamic phenomenon that it is.

Yale Climate Connections seems like a lot of climate journalism, a gatekeeping function which treats any alternative views as some form of denial. Yet by keeping the role of land destruction out of the debate, they are the ones actually denying forms of human caused climate change. We also have to ask, how much of their denial of land change as a significant factor in climate change derives from the fact that an extraordinary amount of land change will be required to implement their technological, industrial "solution."

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thank you!

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More excellent writing. Thank you Rob for your hard work.

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Thank you so much, Jeff!

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Another great addition to this series Rob. Nothing could better honour Dr Millan and his legacy than continuing to explore the questions that were so central to his life's work. Thank you.

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Thank you, Richard. Yes, I think he saw it going on over all the place, and it concerned him quite a bit.

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Does anyone know why Millán puts these figures in his famous graph?: 42°C, 21 grams. of water (and also 26°C and 14 grams.)

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26C (299k), 14 g H2O/Kg air is the temperature and moisture content of the sea breeze coming in on the right side of the figure. On the left side the top image shows that the air has cooled below 315 and gained has at least 21 g H2O/kg air, conditions that produce the storm. On the left side in the bottom image, the air contains less than 21 g H2O/kg air and the temperature has risen over 315 K. Only in the top has the air gained enough moisture and cooled enough to generate the storm. He uses Kelvin I think for the sake of meteorological calculation.

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315K & 21grs is very far from saturation.

I don't think you can measure 315K at 2000 mts altitude.

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I noticed that too. I never got a chance to go in to the math with Millan. The work is peer reviewed. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/18/5/jcli-3283.1.xml

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Thank you, Rob, for this new article!

It has been a challenging piece of work since I first email you in August last year.

I feel honored to contribute to Dr. Millan's quest and grateful for the opportunity to know him through this work.

There is still a long way to go, but if Dr. Millan has dedicated his life to explore this questions, we should make his work worthful .

Our planet depends on our commitment.

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Thank you, Diego. Yes, this was a long and fruitful collaboration. Thank you so much for reaching out to me and getting this process going. Hopefully we can begin to shift the conversation.

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My real pleasure and honor to work with you on this.

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Who can resist the importance of this story. Climate action groups in the Pacific Northwest (an area becoming more Mediterranean like) advocating changed forest policies could use this information in support of more reasons for Federal and State governments/agencies to halt cutting of old growth and mature forests, etc. Thank you Rob.

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Thank you Rob for keeping the information flowing and the conversation going! And thank you Diego for discussing the relevance to Chile. I wonder what we would find in Greece, where fires and floods are stronger and more frequent. Your writing about Prof. Millan’s work Rob, is soothing the pain of his unfortunate loss!

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Thank you, Nikos. Yes, Greece likely faces a similar situation as Millan described. It just wasn't part of his study area. When we degrade life, we desiccate the environment. It's happening everywhere I think. even here in the "lush" Pacific Northwest of the US. Thanks for your work!

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Great article!!! Now the question is, how do we change the narrow view of the authorities, who are always focussed on the problems: droughts, floods, fires, and not on the solutions.

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That is and excelente question Carolina. "How do we change?" The narrow view of authorities is part of the problem. The are "Democratically" put there by us and by our "mayor" interest.

Change comes from us. Citizen making real action to move this forward.

Lets walk the talk, "authorities" wont make it for us.

What Millan pointed of is that the problem begging's with Land use Change. A "bad" Land Use Change is one that worsen the Climate. These would mean more Solar Albedo that gets caught in GHG, Infrared reflection of Heated surface. We can measure this locally with satellites or even Drones.

The best solution to all these problems is Vegetation (Reduce solar albedo that would get caught in GHG, lowers the surface temperature and the moisture will take away the heat to where you have a cloud formation. Some solutions like this are described in the articule.

Lets start greening the city with "parrones" and infiltrating water with "Amunas"

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